Let's Talk About 2016

So the government isn't shutting down, for now. But just because Congress is still up and running downs mean there aren't serious implications that come in the wake of this near shutdown over Planned Parenthood funding. Democrats were hopeful that the lack of cooperation from House Republicans would allow them to win back the House in 2016, but that doesn't seem likely. When the government shutdown last time, House Republicans were largely at fault but when it came time to vote, Americans still elected a Republican majority to the House. The Democrats also have a 30 seat minority so it seems unlikely that the party would be able to win that many seats, considering the number of competitive districts with elections next year. If by chance Democrats could win back the House it would be nearly impossible for them to gain a strong majority, which would only perpetuate the standby happening in Congress right now.

Although a Democrat majority in the House next year seems unlikely, there is hope for a majority in the Senate. The Republicans currently hold 54 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 44. With Republicans lacking a strong majority and shouldering most of the blame for Congress' failure to past a budget, the Senate majority is very much up for grabs next year (Roll Call). There are also a number of other factors that contribute to Republicans not having a guaranteed majority in the Senate. First of all, Senate positions tend to be more competitive and constituencies are not as tightly supportive of their Senators as they are to their representatives. That means that in the handful of competitive districts, Republicans are not a guarantee to win. Moreover, more people tend to show up during a presidential election year and this has been shown to slightly benefit Democrats. There is also a larger pool of moderate or undecided voters that turn out in a presidential election year. This means the voters are not as linked to a party and more moderate candidates appeal to them. With the votes of these people up for grabs, I think Democrats will benefit, as the Republicans in the House and Senate are largely at fault for the highly publicized lack of cooperation over the budget.

Furthermore, the elections are in favor of Democrats. In 2016, the party only has to defend two competitive seats while Republicans have to defend six of their competitive seats. Democrats have strong offensive opportunities to regain control here. However, there is no way to guarantee Democrats taking the majority in the Senate. It will largely depend on the presidential candidates. Like I said earlier, more voters tend to turn out in presidential election years. The presidential election will be more publicized and more accessible to the public. If one candidate gains a lot of footing in now of those competitive states, it's likely the senate races will go in favor of that candidates party. That's why it's hard to know at this time how the competitive states will vote until each party has nominated their presidential candidate. So in the mean time, the Senate seems up for grabs, an ideal situation for the Democratic Party.

Roll Call
http://www.rollcall.com/news/senate_control_up_for_grabs_next_year-243912-1.html?pg=1&dczone=politics