While Sestak was obviously quite popular in the 2010 election, barely losing to Toomey, an interesting turn of events in favor of McGinty has been slowly emerging—she is receiving heavy support from established Pennsylvania Democrats. Not only is former Governor Ed Rendell chairing McGinty's campaign (Pathé 2015), but also just this week sitting Governer Tom Wolf officially endorsed McGinty in her race for the U.S. Senate (Cahn 2015). Wolf's endorsement carries significant weight, as it is basically accompanied by the support of the state's Democratic party organizations. It is also not suprising that the Governor has chosen to endorse McGinty—she served as his Chief of Staff from the onset of his tenure as Governor, resigning in late July to announce her run for Senate. Since beginning her campaign, she has also gained the endorsements from the mayors of major PA cities: Bob Donchez (Bethlehem), Sal Panto Jr. (Easton), and Bill Peduto (Pittsburgh) (Opilo 2015; Zito 2015). Even more significantly, nationally recognized Democrats "have been dissatisfied with Sestak" (Pathé 2015), McGinty's biggest threat in the primary, with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) even [unsuccessfully] courting other candidates to challenge Sestak in the primary (Madonna & Young 2015). Despite her immense amount of support from PA Democrats, as well as the national-level Democrats' dislike of Sestak, there is speculation that her late entry into the race (Sestak had been campaigning for months by the time she announced) may harm her ability to raise money and thus her chances of gaining the party's nomination; even if she does beat Sestak, she will face the additional challenge of running against an incumbent (Zito 2015).
Many of the aforementioned details factor into what makes a successful Senate campagin, but the key is finding the right combination of these factors. McGinty has ample endorsements from popular political figures within the state, which carries these endorsers' name recognition even if McGinty is not yet a household name. Additionally, these endorsements are likely to bring with them widespread support of the PA Democratic Party, which will likely give McGinty a degree of advantage over Sestak. However, party support in recent years has become far less important than finance—as spending by non-connected groups such as SuperPACs and 527s has proliferated over the past few elections. Sestak had already raised a few million dollars by the time McGinty began her campaign (Zito 2015), which could prove detrimental to McGinty if she is unable to raise as much as him. Her late entry into the race, however, does not automatically rule out McGinty as a viable candidate; she has support from EMILY's List (Zito 2015), an organization aimed at helping elect Democratic women to Congress, as well as endoresement from UnitedSteelworkers, the largest industrial labor union in the nation (Pathé 2015). Rendell previously served as Mayor of Philadelphia and was then elected for two terms (the maximum) as Governor of Pennsylvania (Ibid), so it is likely that his support of and work on McGinty's campaign will bring with it considerable fundraising. Perhaps most notably, though, Rendell also previously chaired the Democratic National Committee—a position that may allow for him to call in national support for McGinty, both through endorsement and financial contributions. It seems that, while McGinty has a lot of work to do to beat popular candidate Sestak (and then, if successful, even more work to prevail over incumbent Toomey), she may have enough support to have a successful campaign.
If McGinty is elected, she will be the first woman Senator from Pennsylvania; her election would also help the Democrats regain control of the Senate. The race will likely be tight, both in the Democratic primary and in the general election, but 2016 just might be the 'year of the woman.. from Pennsylvania.'
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Many of the aforementioned details factor into what makes a successful Senate campagin, but the key is finding the right combination of these factors. McGinty has ample endorsements from popular political figures within the state, which carries these endorsers' name recognition even if McGinty is not yet a household name. Additionally, these endorsements are likely to bring with them widespread support of the PA Democratic Party, which will likely give McGinty a degree of advantage over Sestak. However, party support in recent years has become far less important than finance—as spending by non-connected groups such as SuperPACs and 527s has proliferated over the past few elections. Sestak had already raised a few million dollars by the time McGinty began her campaign (Zito 2015), which could prove detrimental to McGinty if she is unable to raise as much as him. Her late entry into the race, however, does not automatically rule out McGinty as a viable candidate; she has support from EMILY's List (Zito 2015), an organization aimed at helping elect Democratic women to Congress, as well as endoresement from UnitedSteelworkers, the largest industrial labor union in the nation (Pathé 2015). Rendell previously served as Mayor of Philadelphia and was then elected for two terms (the maximum) as Governor of Pennsylvania (Ibid), so it is likely that his support of and work on McGinty's campaign will bring with it considerable fundraising. Perhaps most notably, though, Rendell also previously chaired the Democratic National Committee—a position that may allow for him to call in national support for McGinty, both through endorsement and financial contributions. It seems that, while McGinty has a lot of work to do to beat popular candidate Sestak (and then, if successful, even more work to prevail over incumbent Toomey), she may have enough support to have a successful campaign.
If McGinty is elected, she will be the first woman Senator from Pennsylvania; her election would also help the Democrats regain control of the Senate. The race will likely be tight, both in the Democratic primary and in the general election, but 2016 just might be the 'year of the woman.. from Pennsylvania.'
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*Note that I exclude Fetterman from much of my discussion of the upcoming primary; this is because, of the three candidates, he is the least well-known and has other factors weighing against him. His appearance does not fit what we typically expect of Senators (or any politicians, really), which you can read about in Dominic's post from last week. Additionally, one of Fetterman's most prominent policy positions is his desire to legalize marijuana (Potter 2015), which is not likely to catapult him to success in a state that has quite a strong conservative population.
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http://atr.rollcall.com/pennsylvania-governor-endorses-crowded-democratic-senate-primary/?dcz=
http://atr.rollcall.com/katie-mcginty-brings-ed-rendell-campaign-chairman/
http://thetimes-tribune.com/opinion/mcginty-may-be-dems-best-hope-for-senate-1.1914370
http://www.timesonline.com/news/governmentandpolitics/senate-candidate-katie-mcginty-gets-labor-endorsement/article_a4c0efd0-5e44-11e5-bea0-032b7340b424.html
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/9022441-74/mcginty-toomey-campaign#axzz3nG82Yjjf
http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-pa-senate-mcginty-pawlowski-donchez-panto-20150930-story.html
http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2015/09/28/U-S-Senate-race-Fetterman-fundraiser-set-Gov-Wolf-endorses-McGinty-pennsylvania-marijuana/stories/201509280150
http://thetimes-tribune.com/opinion/mcginty-may-be-dems-best-hope-for-senate-1.1914370
http://www.timesonline.com/news/governmentandpolitics/senate-candidate-katie-mcginty-gets-labor-endorsement/article_a4c0efd0-5e44-11e5-bea0-032b7340b424.html
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/9022441-74/mcginty-toomey-campaign#axzz3nG82Yjjf
http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-pa-senate-mcginty-pawlowski-donchez-panto-20150930-story.html
http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2015/09/28/U-S-Senate-race-Fetterman-fundraiser-set-Gov-Wolf-endorses-McGinty-pennsylvania-marijuana/stories/201509280150
1 comment:
I really enjoyed reading this post because I think it speaks to a broad trend in American politics at this moment. I think that the more womens' issues become prominent on the national level, the more of a necessity there will be for women to be discussing and representing those issues. I know that Bill Nye is not necessarily a reputable political source, but he did recently release the video which re-stated the common mantra "we need women talking about and handling womens' issues." He points at the facts that old white men should not be the ones deciding the fate of millions of womens' welfares in America. This, of course, is not to say that women should exclusively control the fates of womens' issues (not unlike how there is no expectation that African Americans should be the only discussing racial issues), but that women, like african americans, deserve a well-heard and received say. Everyone, including women, including old white men, deserve voice. I think that McGinty's expanding support from in her own party could largely be attributed to this slow but steady realization that women need to be involved in politics on the national level, that women provide a unique perspective (and an important one) on not only womens' issues, but all issues.
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