And Your Winner is … John Boehner?
With the government shutdown
entering its third week, and a debt ceiling right around the corner, there has
only been one clear winner during the shutdown: Speaker of the House John
Boehner. Just a little over a month ago, we noted how Boehner had been seen as
vulnerable. Rumors had been swirling of his impending announcement of his
retirement and his tiredness of leading the Republican Party that had become,
shall we say, fractured at best. Now, as we move towards the present time, its
quite clear that not only is Boehner staying around for the foreseeable future,
he might come out of this shutdown with more power and political capital then
he had ever had before.
Let’s rewind to about three
weeks ago right before the government shutdown. This is where the rise of
Boehner began. The rise began with The Affordable Health Care Act battle,
better known as the ObamaCare fight. While the government shutdown debate
should have been about the debt ceiling and our nations fiscal problems,
hardliner Republicans wanted the debate to be about Obamacare. Boehner knew
President Obama would not negotiate on ObamaCare, at least at first, and the
government was poised to shutdown. Boehner did not cave and allowed the
government to close its doors, meaning many of our governmental programs would
be closed for business. (1)
By sticking to his
parties guns and not being willing to negotiate if ObamaCare wasn’t on the
table with changes made, not only did Boehner show he was willing to listen to
his party and lead with their wishes (even if we believe he might not agree
with them), he was able to speak on T.V. with the nation watching everyday
standing up to President Obama which made the hardliner Republican’s stand up
in support. John Fleming, a Republican
congressman from Louisiana and a longtime critic of Boehner said, “His stock has
risen tremendously among Republicans.” “What he’s doing now is unifying us.” Even
Thomas Massie, a republican congressman from Kentucky who participated in an
unsuccessful coup against Boehner in January said, “I think he’s doing a great
job so far.” Not only has Boehner risen within the party and become the voice
behind the shutdown, it seems as if he might just be unifying them. (2)
As we just noted, Boehner
almost lost his speakership by a coup from Republicans in the House. Although he
barley scraped by and retained his speakership, he was vulnerable. The longer
this shutdown continues to go on, the longer Boehner is able to continue to
stand up in front of the nation and fight with President Obama. If Boehner is
able to “win” and gain concessions from the Democrats that leads to the
refunding of the government, Boehner will have not only won the battle, he will
have won the war. He will be seen as the strong voice and leader of the
Republican Party that has sorely been missing. He will be seen as the person
who was able to reunite a fractured party and bring them to solidarity and lead
the nation out fiscal uncertainty. (3)
Boehner’s biggest Achilles
heal has always been the hardliner Republicans, and by pandering to them during
the biggest moment of his speakership that will likely define his legacy, he
has turned his biggest weakness into his biggest strength. Assuming he doesn’t
cave and continues down the path he has set, there is one winner that cold very
well emerge from the government shutdown, and that is Speaker of the House John
Boehner.
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