Boehner Lost The Battle, But Did He Lose The War?

Boehner Lost The Battle, But Did He Lose The War?

While John Boehner, as he described it, got “overrun” in the budget talks last week, and many believe Boehner was the biggest loser because he failed to get any of the concessions the Republicans wanted, even something so small as eliminating the employer contribution for congressional staffers under the health-care law I believe in the long run, Boehner will gain from this bad loss. (1) 

We argued last week that Boehner was smart with siding with the tea party conservatives in the defunding or delaying in the implementation of Obamacare because he would strengthen his speakership down the road. Rep. (R) John Fleming, a previous critic of Boehner, said, “His job is more secure than ever,” Fleming said.  Even Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), who didn’t vote for Boehner during a failed effort to oust him in January came to Boehner’s support saying, “I’ve been really proud of Speaker Boehner the last two and half weeks.” It seems today that by standing with the hard right conservatives it just might have paid off. (2) 

We also argued that Boehner knew that President Obama and the Democrats would not agree to any such demands, and eventually, the Republican’s would have to cave and come away with next to nothing. That’s leverage. The Republicans were asking for the moon and they had no leverage to ask for it, and the Democrats didn’t blink.

The reason we believe Boehner played along with the message and fought for what the far right believed in is because now he has the ability when the next shutdown looms to argue that the Democrats have confirmed that they won’t be giving into any of these conditions, and it’s time to fight for actual change that can occur.  This means actual conversations on the budget deficit, spending limits and the debt ceiling, something Boehner and many moderates wanted the debates and discussions to be about. This won’t make GOP conservatives happy, but it will allow the GOP moderates to have a say in the next debate talks, and it might just mobilize the party as a whole. The far was has been happy with Boehner, as we noted the past two weeks, and they might just pave the way for the moderates to have more of a say. (3) 

While everyone including John Boehner himself said that he lost the battle and got, “overrun,” he hasn’t lost the war yet, and he will have a chance to win the final war once and for all come January and February when the next shutdown will loom.

1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-house-speaker-john-boehner/2013/10/18/034339de-37fd-11e3-8a0e-4e2cf80831fc_story.html

2) http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/house-conservatives-john-boehner-default-debt-ceiling-98397.html

3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/17/did-barack-obama-do-john-boehner-a-big-favor/